Show Me The Money! On the Road to 98%

Illinois - 97.44%
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.68%
Alabama - 91.99%
Kentucky - 89.83%
Oklahoma - 89.69%

As of this morning, we have 556 carriers left on our Unregistered List. If they all pay in accordance with the MCMIS numbers, we'll generate another $59,564. Not exactly the stuff of financial dreams, but ... very consistent with the "average of $80-100 per registration theory".

You may find this surprising, but I like to develop little spreadsheets that tell me different things about UCR stats. One of my favorites is a report I call the UCR Daily Activity report, where I monitor all of today's different UCR activities like registration, deactivations, buffer additions, carrier additions, etc. and attempt to decipher where our percentage is likely to wind up tomorrow morning. It's trickier than it sounds, because we don't know how many carriers the Feds are going to add overnight. Also, as you know, not every registered carrier comes off the Unregistered List.

I have an extra little section on that worksheet that contains the data about the other leading registration states and where we stand compared to them. Since we're almost half-way to 98%, I decided to calculate what the other states would have to do to get to 98%. It goes something like this:

We will have to take approximately 116 of carriers off our remaining 556 unregistered carriers (about 21%) to get to 98%.

Maine would have to take approximately 48 carriers off their remaining 110 unregistered carriers (about 44%) to get to 98%.

Indiana would have to take approximately 725 carriers off their remaining 993 unregistered carriers (about 73%) to get to 98%.

Alabama would have to take approximately 475 carriers off their remaining 636 unregistered carriers (about 75%) to get to 98%.

Hey, it ain't easy!

Which Comes First - We Get To Zero ... or 2010 Fees?

Illinois - 97.36%
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.58%
Alabama - 91.84%
Kentucky - 89.81%
Oklahoma - 89.71%

It's interesting that our "Getting to Zero" (GTZ) date projections appear to be on a crash course with the 90-day OMB deadline. As you know, I have mixed feelings about that. But since GTZ is still approximately 2.64 months away, it makes me wonder what in the world OMB is reviewing! Or, more likely, is the rule just sitting at the bottom of a pile on somebody's desk (which will necessitate a 90-day extension)? Who knows?

For what it's worth, here's my prognostication: I'm betting on GTZ to win, publication of the final 2010 fee rule to show - yes, show - and the Tea Party wildly embracing massive public debt to place.

J-u-s-s-s-s-s-t kidding!

Oklahoma Coming On Strong!

Illinois - 97.33%
Maine - 96.44%
Indiana - 92.43%
Alabama - 91.85%
Kentucky - 89.85%
Oklahoma - 89.72%

I've added Oklahoma to the stats because they are really making headway toward 90% registration and I'm interested to see if they get there before Kentucky. What difference does that make? Who knows? Maybe it's just the competitive side of me. Kentucky has been stuck in the same range for 2-3 weeks now. Maybe I'll send them an Unregistered List to help them get unstuck.

Speaking of Kentucky, there was a big accident on I-65 about 5:30 this morning south of Louisville. Apparently, a big rig crossed a median and hit a Mennonite church van head-on. 11 people are dead - most of them in the van and at least a couple of them infants. It's really tragic. I'm tempted to editorialize, but I think I'll just leave it alone. You probably know what I'd say anyway.

Have a great weekend!

UCR and FMCSA Out-Of-Service (OOS) Carriers

Illinois - 97.30%
Maine - 96.34%
Indiana - 92.36%
Alabama - 91.86%
Kentucky - 89.86%

Of the 586 carriers on today's Unregistered List, we have a handful of carriers who are classified by the FMCSA as "Out-Of-Service (OOS)". I have decided that it's not "reasonable" to expect us to register these carriers under UCR as they have been deemed unfit to operate by FMCSA and they will be detained and further penalized if they are caught operating.

FMCSA does not deactivate their USDOT numbers, however, so they will continue to show up on our Unregistered List.

We have decided, therefore, that we are going to "Buffer" these carriers (ask UCR-Link to "hide" them from our view) in order to get them off our radar. In the event that FMCSA allows these carriers back into service, we will "un-buffer" them.

UCR "Motivation and Fitness"

Illinois - 97.26%
Maine - 96.31%
Indiana - 92.37%
Alabama - 91.83%
Kentucky - 89.84%

I love tennis. More correctly, I love watching world-class tennis.

I also have a tendency to root for the underdog.

Last weekend, at a "world-class" tennis tournament in Indian Wells, California, a journeyman 31-year-old tennis player named Ivan Ljubicic - who was not even ranked in the world's top 20 players - beat America's best player, Andy Roddick, to win the tournament. Roddick is ranked 7th in the world. In order to get to the Roddick match, Ljubicic had to beat Rafael Nadal, the #2 player in the world. In order to get to the Nadal match, Ljubicic had to beat Novak Djokovic, the #3 player in the world.

When they interviewed Ljubicic after the match, they asked him how an "old guy" like him could beat all these young, top-notched guys in the same week. He answered, essentially, that it was not about age, but motivation. He said he has been spending 5 hours a day for the past few months working not on his tennis, but on his body because, to paraphrase Ljubicic, "in order to beat all of those guys in a a week, you have to be fit! The tennis comes naturally."

Since I love analogies, I got to thinking about UCR motivation and fitness. The higher we set the bar for our state, the more motivated and "fit" we have to be to get there. The approach that gets a state to 70% is probably not the approach that will get that same state to 80%. Same with 80% to 90%. And a state generally needs an "enhanced" approach to get from 90% to 95%.

Along the way, we decide - whether by design or default - what level is "good enough" for us.

I'm guessing that "good enough" is rarely a matter of "not enough people". It's more than likely a matter of motivation and fitness.

Pondering The Last 2.74%

Illinois - 97.26%
Maine - 96.34%
Indiana - 92.39%
Alabama - 91.87%
Kentucky - 89.82%

If you've read this blog over the last couple of months, you know that I'm fairly comfortable predicting a one-percent-per-month increase in our registration percentage from this point forward. At that rate, we'll "get to zero" in, let's see, approximately 2.74 months.

Admittedly, we're not there yet. But since Z-Day coincides so nicely with the expiration of the OMB rule review (and possible extension), we just might get there!

Part of me wants to get the 2010 fees and get the new registration going, but part of me wants to see this thing all the way through to the very end.

Why?

Because once it's been done, nobody can say it can't be done.

More importantly, we will have learned HOW to do it and what it takes to get there, which coverts it from an "impossibility" into a "best practice".

Happy Birthday, UCR 5000!!!

Unregistered Carriers on 03/17/2009 - 656
Unregistered Carriers on 03/18/2010 - 640

Illinois - 97.05%
Maine - 96.40%
Indiana - 92.24%
Alabama - 91.83%
Kentucky - 89.83%

Exactly one year ago today, we constructed our first UCR5000 spreadsheet after publicly declaring at the UCR Board Meeting that Illinois was going to attempt to register everybody in our UCR Universe for 2009.

You may recall that our first "Unregistered List" contained 5,123 carriers - and we had already registered somewhere in the neighborhood of 13,000 IL carriers for 2009 at that point!

UCR-Link didn't exist at that point. Our first UCR reports actually came out of our CVIEW. Eventually, we tried to jam so many UCR-related things into CVIEW that Chris finally said, "Why don't we just make a separate UCR software product out of this." We both agreed that other states might be interested in a product like that.

We can now see the light at the end of the "getting to zero" tunnel. If there's any bad news, it's that we've needed a registration year of 18 months ... and counting.... to get there. But the good news is that we are now smarter, we have better tools, we have some experience under our belts, and we're are ready for 2010 --- if we can just get some fees!!!

Have a great weekend!

97% Coming Up - Right On Schedule!

Unregistered Carriers on 03/17/2009 - 660
Unregistered Carriers on 03/18/2010 - 656

Illinois - 96.98%
Maine - 96.30%
Indiana - 92.22%
Alabama - 91.80%
Kentucky - 89.83%

Barring a catastrophe, we're going to go over 97% tomorrow. As you know, I'm estimating a one percent per month improvement in our registration percentage, with the 21st of the month being the actual measurement date. Since the 21st of this month is a Sunday, we're right on target!

Some interesting things are happening with regard to this phase of the UCR5000 project, which I like to refer to as "drying up the lake".

First, lots more carriers are contacting us requesting that their USDOT number be deactivated. This seems to be the direct result of our "relentless" contact efforts. The beauty of these types of requests ("please deactivate my USDOT number") is that there is no potentially-contentious procedure discussion between us and the Feds. The carrier's request to deactivate is all either one of us need for justification.

Second, we are increasingly able to "zero in" on the remaining folks and actually intensify our efforts at getting them registered. Rest assured that we are not going to stop contacting them until we 1) register them, 2) deactivate them or 3) bust them. We really are trying to stop short of busting them unless we can establish that they are just "thumbing their noses at us".

656 unregistered carriers seems, in some ways, like a lot, but compared to where we started, it's looking more and more manageable!

Incorrigible Unregistered Carriers

Unregistered Carriers on 03/16/2009 - 660
Unregistered Carriers on 03/17/2010 - 660

Illinois - 96.96%
Maine - 96.34%
Indiana - 92.20%
Alabama - 91.85%
Kentucky - 89.84%

Ok, I understand that the UCR program is confusing at the moment. I also understand that some carriers are thinking that they can wait until 2010 fees come out before they have to register --- and then they think that they won't have to register for 2009 at all. I get all that.

But there is also a group of carriers who KNOW that they are supposed to register ... and they just sandbag us. I make no apologies for not registering these guys. Many of them are in out-of-the-way locations. Usually, they are little guys. They don't see many of our cops ... or MCSAP cops either, for that matter. We continue to contact them and try to get them to register. If our cops see them, they're toast ... MCSAP guys, not so much.

The time may soon be coming, however, when the Feds will have to help us out by taking action against these carriers - probably by way of the DOT number. Perhaps a deactivation of the number and/or an Out-Of-Service designation.

What I'm suggesting will be difficult for the Feds. UCR is not really on their radar ... except for that pesky fee rule! Nevertheless, I think they will be the first to admit that deactivating a USDOT number gets the attention of roadside motor carrier safety officers and inspectors everywhere. They instantly know that something is wrong with the guy - which, in turn, causes them to dig deeper.

We have to be patient - but persistent - on this issue. At then end of the day, I think we're all after the same thing - safe, fit and accountable carriers. A little help from our friends at the Fed will take us a long way in that direction.

Vendor As State "Proxy" - Part 3

Unregistered Carriers on 03/15/2009 - 687
Unregistered Carriers on 03/16/2010 - 660

Illinois - 96.96%
Maine - 96.34%
Indiana - 92.17%
Alabama - 91.82%
Kentucky - 89.87%

Today, we'll focus on the actual activities surrounding UCR registration.

The way I see it, our vendor (state "proxy") might consider offering several different types of registration - just like a state would - but they would focus on and encourage registration via the Web as their primary registration preference. Ideally, they would encourage registration on the Indiana site in order to avoid the overhead of creating and maintaining the State's own Web site.

But that is not the vendor's real edge. The vendor's real edge is in the amount of "people power" required to manage the registration side of the program - more specifically, their ability to scale the amount and cost of the personal effort required.

Let's assume that, unlike most states, a vendor can hire talented temporary help in whatever quantities they see fit. These talented temps usually come in at an hourly rate and are provided no benefits. In an economy like this, they are definitely out there - and happy to get the work! And, the vendor can adjust the amount needed as they go.

Now, couple that notion with the Move The Needle (MTN) ratio I've been writing about.

This morning, I asked my people if they thought one person could handle all of the UCR registration work for a state with a low MTN. They said yes. By "handle", I mean they would take care of the mail, the walk-ins, the phone calls, the registration processing and responding to emails. Keep in mind that what I'm really asking is whether one full-time-equivalent (FTE) can handle the work. This could be accomplished by one person working at the job full-time, two people working at the job half-time, etc.

A state might say "no way" to one FTE doing the work, but the vendor has no problem making this the actual "job description" for the temp - one full time equivalent (FTE) for the UCR registration job. With regard to cost, I'm guessing that temps in the area of $12-14 per hour could handle the work with some up-front instruction and ongoing access to someone who can handle the exceptional situations.

Meanwhile, if a state is paying their staff FTE a salary of $20K plus current overhead rates in the neighborhood of, say, 65%, they are paying an overall hourly rate of around $18 per hour. (Many of us are, I believe, paying a lot more than that!) Meanwhile, the full-time help is not really all that scalable. And, they take vacations, sick days and personal days.

Now please understand that I am not knocking full-time state help. I have said many times that I have a remarkable staff and I will tell that to anybody, anytime. And, they deserve the time off to which they are entitled.

Here's what I AM saying: I think a vendor with the right tools and some reasonably-talented temporary help might very well end up "netting" more UCR money for a state than if that state runs their own program with their own full-time people.

Don't think of it as running government "as a business". Think of it as running government in a business-like fashion. There's a difference.

Score
-----
Vendor Proxy - 2
State - 0

Vendor As State "Proxy" - Part 2

Unregistered Carriers on 03/12/2009 - 686
Unregistered Carriers on 03/15/2010 - 687

Illinois - 96.83%
Maine - 96.24%
Indiana - 92.12%
Alabama - 91.76%
Kentucky - 89.84%

In my last post, I said that the registration side (as opposed to the enforcement side) of UCR involves two major tasks:

1) Carrier contact
2) Act of carrier registration

Let's look at Carrier Contact first. I can tell you that when it comes to carrier contact, any state that is not using capabilities comparable to those found in the UCR-Link product will lose the carrier contact battle to the vendor every time.

First, you will be contacting only the current crop of unregistered UCR Universe carriers. That list changes every day and is impossible to keep up with without functionality of this kind.

Second, you have the Emailer, which provides the capability to automatically contact all unregistered carriers with email addresses every fifteen days - free! Hands-off!

These capabilities put a vendor or state in the position of being able to contact only the appropriate carriers relentlessly. You are virtually guaranteed to increase your registration percentage with that kind of activity going on.

So, in my opinion, the best a state can do is achieve a "draw" against a vendor
when it comes to Carrier Contact.

Next time, we'll focus on the second major task - the actual act of registration.

Vendor as "State Proxy" - Part 1

Unregistered Carriers on 03/10/2009 - 741
Unregistered Carriers on 03/12/2010 - 686

Illinois - 96.84%
Maine - 96.24%
Indiana - 92.10%
Alabama - 91.69%
Kentucky - 89.85%

In Wednesday's post, I said that a vendor that "acted like a state on behalf of the state" - via outsourcing - might very well out-perform the state for which the vendor was the proxy. Please understand that this idea is sort of hypothetical, but, having been on the vendor side, I know the idea to be workable as well.

Let's assume at the outset of this "thought experiment" that the quality of service provided by the vendor would be at least as good as the state would provide - whatever that means. I'll leave it to your imagination as to how high that bar would be set.

Let's also assume that the vendor is operating under the following - and only the following - contraints.

First, the vendor can't do illegal, unethical or immoral stuff.

Second, the vendor will be told by the state what, specifically, will constitute "acceptable or unacceptable" registrations, and will use the same acceptability decision-making mechanism as the state. ("This guy claimed 1,000 power units and paid for one! Why did you accept that?")

Those assumptions will do for starters. We may need to add some as we go.

OK, as I see it, the registration side (as opposed to the enforcement side) of UCR involves two major tasks: carrier contact and then the actual act of carrier registration.

In my next post, we'll compare the state approach to the vendor approach and see who would likely come out on top.

Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Curtain!

Unregistered Carriers on 03/09/2009 - 746
Unregistered Carriers on 03/10/2010 - 741

Illinois - 96.59%
Maine - 96.20%
Indiana - 92.00%
Alabama - 91.46%
Kentucky - 89.77%

A couple of weeks ago, I was sitting on a beach in Florida thinking about UCR. That statement, in and of itself, should raise a bunch of red flags!

But then, I had this thought, which should be taken as nothing more than the ramblings of a man who's not smart enough to think about something other than UCR while he's basking in the sun - or who's been out in the sun too long.

My thought was this:

What if a state completely outsourced its UCR registration operation to a "UCR Vendor"? Lock, stock and barrel. Not enforcement, just registration. Which one would do the job better?

Let's assume, for the sake of discussion, that 1) the vendor could legitimately claim to carriers that they represented the state ("Hi, this is the state of Illinois calling"), 2) the vendor had capabilities equivalent to UCR-Link and 3) there was some kind of incentive for the vendor to do their best job - performance clauses, bonuses, or whatever - just like there are for states (except, of course, for those crazy caps!). Perhaps the following would work: the vendor gets the same percentage of the agreed-upon compensation as the state's UCR registration percentage. Sold!

I have to be honest - I kind of like the vendor's chances. Why? Because it could be run very similarly to a for-profit project. Combine that with enforcement and you've got a winner!

What The MTN Ratio DOESN"T Tell You

Unregistered Carriers on 03/08/2009 - 783
Unregistered Carriers on 03/09/2010 - 746

Illinois - 96.56%
Maine - 95.88%
Indiana - 91.96%
Alabama - 91.35%
Kentucky - 89.76%

Actually, there are LOTS of things the MTN Ratio doesn't tell you. The "thing" I was thinking about was that the MTN Ratio does not reflect when a state like New York or Texas registers lots of non-participating state carriers. The MTN ratio only applies to carriers domiciled in the states under discussion at the time.

Take New York, for example. Please! Take New York! (Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, I'll be here through Saturday night.)

New Jersey - a neighboring non-participating state - has 13,000 carriers. A great many of them are registered by our good friend in New York, Bill Leonard. So ... if you add NJ's MTN ratio of 130 to New York's 170, you could argue that Bill has an MTN Ratio of close to 300. And that's just one extra jurisdiction that Bill deals with - there are also carriers from another 8 to 10 jurisdictions who could choose NY if they so desired.

So, we could surmise that if you were going to seek out exclusive registration of carriers from a non-participating state, you might get a rough idea of how much work you were in for by using the MTN Ratio. That's the theory, at least.

More About The Move The Needle (MTN) Ratio

Unregistered Carriers on 03/05/2009 - 763
Unregistered Carriers on 03/08/2010 - 783

Illinois - 96.39%
Maine - 95.88%
Indiana - 91.93%
Alabama - 91.34%
Kentucky - 89.72%

First, let me say that we were "lambasted" by a bunch of USDOT number "adds" - looks like most of them were an upload of inspections for carriers not previously in the UCR Universe. We also got a notification from FMCSA that they had a file problem. We'll have to sort it all out tomorrow.

Meanwhile, I've been doing more thinking about the MTN ratio, which, I'm convinced, is destined for whatever the Oscar-equivalent is for cool numbers.

As nearly as I can tell, this number may also be a reflection of the range of effort required of states - and the efficiency of that effort - in administering UCR registration next year. See if this makes sense.

I have a total of 21,684 carriers in my current universe. One percent of that total is 216.84. In 2010, I will have to register 217 carriers in order to ratchet my registration percentage up one percent. If I have 3 FTE's working on my UCR registrations, I'm going to need roughly 72 registrations per FTE per percentage point.

Meanwhile, a number of states (ME, RI, NM and MT) have ratios between 28 and 30, meaning they have to register 28 to 30 carriers to ratchet their percentage up one percent.

I guess I'm speculating that they should be able to "move their needle" about 2.5 percent for each FTE they are assigning to UCR if their productivity per FTE is about the same as ours here in IL.

I've got to think about this some more. If you have thoughts about today's post, let me know.

My New "Move The Needle" Performance Ratio

Unregistered Carriers on 03/02/2009 - 796
Unregistered Carriers on 03/05/2010 - 763

Illinois - 96.48%
Maine - 95.68%
Indiana - 91.86%
Alabama - 91.24%
Kentucky - 89.72%

I was sitting around contemplating the notion that some states have to work a lot harder than others in order to significantly move their registration percentage "needle" when, inspired by the fact that even Al Gore can win a Nobel prize, I decided to invent a new ratio to reflect the level of effort required by each state to "move the needle". I call it, appropriately enough, the "Move the Needle" (MTN) ratio.

Essentially, the MTN ratio is a function of how many percent a state has left before they reach full (100%) registration divided into how many unregistered carriers they have left. The ratio represents the number of carriers by which a state must reduce its unregistered list in order to "move the needle" 1%.

Here are the MTN ratios for the current top 5 states registration percentage states:

IL - 216.76
ME - 30.56
IN - 134.89
AL - 79.34
KY - 88.81

Here are five highest MTN ratios:

CA - 292.62
TX - 220.95
IL - 216.76
PA - 187.65
NY - 167.83

I'm certain that the history books will eventually acknowledge the importance of this ratio right up there along with the Fibonacci series and the multiplication tables. For now, I have to be content with the knowledge that I have a sound mathematical excuse for getting beat by everybody except CA and TX.

Have a great weekend!

We May Just Get To Zero Yet!!!

Unregistered Carriers on 02/26/2009 - 832
Unregistered Carriers on 03/02/2010 - 796

Illinois - 96.32%
Maine - 95.23%
Indiana - 91.80%
Alabama - 90.95%
Kentucky - 89.70%

In case you're not aware of it, the FMCSA indicated today - despite the furlough - that the 2010 fee rule was sent to OMB yesterday, with a potential publication date in mid-June. That development reminded me of a cartoon I saw once that showed two guys fishing in a boat with a huge mushroom cloud in the background. I don't remember the whole caption, but the gist of it was, "I'll tell you what that means, Bob. It means we don't need a license anymore and screw the limit!" Talk about making your lemonade out of your lemon!

Now ... while I hope that OMB moves the 2010 fee rule through their process much faster than mid-June, we could very well be looking at three more months of 2009 registration. That's roughly 60 more work days. If you divide 796 by 60, you get something like 14, which is the NET number of unregistered carriers we would have to remove daily from our list either through registration or deactivation to "get to zero". That's not a small task, but it certainly seems within reach.

So, .... we shall see what we shall see! And Maine will probably beat me to it!