Illinois - 97.69%
Maine - 96.51%
Indiana - 92.74%
Alabama - 92.24%
First, let me point out that I think I've been jinxing all of the 89%+ states - they have just stagnated - so I'm removing them from the blog for now. They were doing better before I started including them, which may have been a function of 2010 IRP renewal season.
Now, let's get down to the exciting business of "sideways drops".
First, we need to review how a carrier gets on the Unregistered List.
Obviously, they have to NOT be registered for 2009 yet.
In addition to that, they also have to be designated (according to MCMIS) as an Active, Interstate Carrier.
Finally, they have to had at least one of the following:
an MCS-150 update in the past 12 months
an inspection within the past 15 months
an accident within the past 15 months
a UCR registration for some year within the past 12 months
If they qualified yesterday but no longer qualify today, they get dropped from the list - just like that!
As luck would have it, I had two sideways drops this morning. I had two carriers on my UL who qualified by way of their "MCS-150 Update" dated 4/9/09. Since they didn't have any of the other three criteria ... and since today marks "one year and one day" since their MCS-150 update, they miraculously dropped off our Unregistered List. No muss, no fuss ... Rest assured that we had tried to register these guys numerous times over the past year, but they just never responded. Frankly, I think they both might be out of business, but that is not directly germane to this discussion.
So there you have it! Everything you always wanted to know about "Sideways Drops"! They're like termites - you can have them and never know it unless you look really close and you know what you're looking for.
Have a great weekend!
Friday, April 9, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
"Sideways Drops" And Tsunamis - Which Is Easier To Predict?
Illinois - 97.65%
Maine - 96.54%
Indiana - 92.76%
Alabama - 92.14%
Kentucky - 89.71%
Oklahoma - 89.62%
I've been doing a little more thinking about the criteria for "Sideways Drops" ... and wondering if I couldn't come up with a better way for predicting these drops. So far, my short answer is "No".
Just to review, here's my un-scientific "back of the envelope" definition for the term "sideways drops":
Carriers who are on the Unregistered List one day and fall off the Unregistered List the next day without anybody doing anything proactive to get them off the list.
Here are two situations that DO NOT qualify as "Sideways Drops":
We change a "carrier" to a "registrant".
We deactivate a USDOT number.
In both of these situations the carriers come off the UL, but we did something proactive to get them off of the list.
Confused??? I'll try to clarify all of this in my next post.
Maine - 96.54%
Indiana - 92.76%
Alabama - 92.14%
Kentucky - 89.71%
Oklahoma - 89.62%
I've been doing a little more thinking about the criteria for "Sideways Drops" ... and wondering if I couldn't come up with a better way for predicting these drops. So far, my short answer is "No".
Just to review, here's my un-scientific "back of the envelope" definition for the term "sideways drops":
Carriers who are on the Unregistered List one day and fall off the Unregistered List the next day without anybody doing anything proactive to get them off the list.
Here are two situations that DO NOT qualify as "Sideways Drops":
We change a "carrier" to a "registrant".
We deactivate a USDOT number.
In both of these situations the carriers come off the UL, but we did something proactive to get them off of the list.
Confused??? I'll try to clarify all of this in my next post.
Besieged By "Sideways Adds"!
Illinois - 97.60%
Maine - 96.51%
Indiana - 92.77%
Alabama - 92.12%
Kentucky - 89.74%
Oklahoma - 89.62%
Yesterday, it was 14. Today, it was 10. 24 sideways adds in two days! From the looks of things, about half were due to MCS-150 updates and half were due to inspections being filed by somebody. The inspections aren't posted anywhere I can look at them yet, so I don't know who submitted them. It's all good, however. More folks to register!
While I'm thinking about "sideways" stuff, it has occurred to me that I never write about "sideways drops" - the opposite of "sideways adds". These are carriers that "drop off" the list because they pass the "no UCR, no MCS-150 update, no crashes and no inspections" threshhold from one day to the next. Quite honestly, we don't keep up quite as well with people who leave the list as we do with people who get added on, but these "drops" are a legitimate piece of Unregistered List business as well. Perhaps I'll write more about them in the next few posts.
Maine - 96.51%
Indiana - 92.77%
Alabama - 92.12%
Kentucky - 89.74%
Oklahoma - 89.62%
Yesterday, it was 14. Today, it was 10. 24 sideways adds in two days! From the looks of things, about half were due to MCS-150 updates and half were due to inspections being filed by somebody. The inspections aren't posted anywhere I can look at them yet, so I don't know who submitted them. It's all good, however. More folks to register!
While I'm thinking about "sideways" stuff, it has occurred to me that I never write about "sideways drops" - the opposite of "sideways adds". These are carriers that "drop off" the list because they pass the "no UCR, no MCS-150 update, no crashes and no inspections" threshhold from one day to the next. Quite honestly, we don't keep up quite as well with people who leave the list as we do with people who get added on, but these "drops" are a legitimate piece of Unregistered List business as well. Perhaps I'll write more about them in the next few posts.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
An IRP-UCR Twist
Illinois - 97.60%
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.75%
Alabama - 92.06%
Kentucky - 89.77%
Oklahoma - 89.62%
As we narrow down our last 500 guys, we are taking a closer look at each carrier to better understand who's left on the list and why they're still on there.
In quite a few instances, we are seeing guys who say they are active interstate motor carriers but who don't register for IRP or IFTA.
After talking with our FMCSA Director, Steve Mattioli, we are kind of "stuck" in the position of having to continue to pursue these guys on the assumption that they MIGHT be operating only vehicles under 26,000 pounds. Doubtful ... but certainly possible.
The most problematic of these guys are the ones who don't get back to us and who are in out-of-the-way locations.
Never fear - we will find out the real scoop on each one! And the truth will set one of us free!
The truth will also write some of them tickets!
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.75%
Alabama - 92.06%
Kentucky - 89.77%
Oklahoma - 89.62%
As we narrow down our last 500 guys, we are taking a closer look at each carrier to better understand who's left on the list and why they're still on there.
In quite a few instances, we are seeing guys who say they are active interstate motor carriers but who don't register for IRP or IFTA.
After talking with our FMCSA Director, Steve Mattioli, we are kind of "stuck" in the position of having to continue to pursue these guys on the assumption that they MIGHT be operating only vehicles under 26,000 pounds. Doubtful ... but certainly possible.
The most problematic of these guys are the ones who don't get back to us and who are in out-of-the-way locations.
Never fear - we will find out the real scoop on each one! And the truth will set one of us free!
The truth will also write some of them tickets!
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Getting To Zero - One More Thing
Illinois - 97.59%
Maine - 96.38%
Indiana - 92.74%
Alabama - 92.00%
Kentucky - 89.73%
Oklahoma - 89.62%
In yesterday's post, I forgot to talk about one more thing that may make "getting to zero" a little misleading - carriers who are "in process".
In addition to the "sideways adds", we are always going to have a few carriers on any given day who are "in process". In other words, there will always be a few registrations "in between" the carrier and us. Usually, this is in the mail or FedEx. They could also be planning to fax their registration in today or drop by in person. Or, they might be waiting for a permit agent to open so they can have the P/A do the registration.
When we get right down to the last few, I'm sure we'll find a couple more reasons why we can't get it right down to zero on a given day. Maybe, since we don't have direct access to MCMIS, we're going to be waiting to get status changes - from carrier to registrant or active to inactive or interstate to intrastate - in MCMIS.
At any rate, I'm thrilled that we can even contemplate these last few piddly issues. But who knows ... maybe the last 50 registrations will prove to be much tougher than I think they will. Only time will tell.
Maine - 96.38%
Indiana - 92.74%
Alabama - 92.00%
Kentucky - 89.73%
Oklahoma - 89.62%
In yesterday's post, I forgot to talk about one more thing that may make "getting to zero" a little misleading - carriers who are "in process".
In addition to the "sideways adds", we are always going to have a few carriers on any given day who are "in process". In other words, there will always be a few registrations "in between" the carrier and us. Usually, this is in the mail or FedEx. They could also be planning to fax their registration in today or drop by in person. Or, they might be waiting for a permit agent to open so they can have the P/A do the registration.
When we get right down to the last few, I'm sure we'll find a couple more reasons why we can't get it right down to zero on a given day. Maybe, since we don't have direct access to MCMIS, we're going to be waiting to get status changes - from carrier to registrant or active to inactive or interstate to intrastate - in MCMIS.
At any rate, I'm thrilled that we can even contemplate these last few piddly issues. But who knows ... maybe the last 50 registrations will prove to be much tougher than I think they will. Only time will tell.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Z-Day (Getting To Zero Day) - What Does That Really Mean?
Illinois - 97.53%
Maine - 96.38%
Indiana - 92.71%
Alabama - 91.97%
Kentucky - 89.77%
Oklahoma - 89.65%
Now that I've declared on/about June 17th to be Z-Day, I've decided to give some thought as to what GTZ actually means in practical terms. Can we really get to zero on/about that day? Probably not.
Here's why:
On any given day, we are "blindsided" by a set of carrier data I have labelled "sideways adds". These are carriers who show up on today's unregistered list, but who weren't on the list yesterday. For those of you who may have forgotten, these additions can happen a couple of different ways.
First, a carrier may have gotten re-classified. In other words, they were classified as something other than an active, interstate carrier yesterday. Perhaps they were labelled as intrastate, inactive or a registrant.
Second, some state may have uploaded to MCMIS an inspection or a crash where there were none for a carrier yesterday. This creates carrier "activity", which moves the carrier into the hallowed inner ring of the UCR Universe.
On a typical day, we here in Illinois generate a "sideways add" list of about 6 carriers. Some days it's a dozen and some days it's two, but 6 is about the norm.
So .... even if we register the last ten carriers on today's list, we will probably get some new carriers via the "sideways add" process tomorrow morning. It's kind of like the half-life of uranium.
And so it goes ... "Getting to Zero" probably really means "Getting To Six", but that's OK --- we're going to call it "Getting To Zero" anyway!
And if we get fees, who knows?!?
Have a great holiday weekend!
Maine - 96.38%
Indiana - 92.71%
Alabama - 91.97%
Kentucky - 89.77%
Oklahoma - 89.65%
Now that I've declared on/about June 17th to be Z-Day, I've decided to give some thought as to what GTZ actually means in practical terms. Can we really get to zero on/about that day? Probably not.
Here's why:
On any given day, we are "blindsided" by a set of carrier data I have labelled "sideways adds". These are carriers who show up on today's unregistered list, but who weren't on the list yesterday. For those of you who may have forgotten, these additions can happen a couple of different ways.
First, a carrier may have gotten re-classified. In other words, they were classified as something other than an active, interstate carrier yesterday. Perhaps they were labelled as intrastate, inactive or a registrant.
Second, some state may have uploaded to MCMIS an inspection or a crash where there were none for a carrier yesterday. This creates carrier "activity", which moves the carrier into the hallowed inner ring of the UCR Universe.
On a typical day, we here in Illinois generate a "sideways add" list of about 6 carriers. Some days it's a dozen and some days it's two, but 6 is about the norm.
So .... even if we register the last ten carriers on today's list, we will probably get some new carriers via the "sideways add" process tomorrow morning. It's kind of like the half-life of uranium.
And so it goes ... "Getting to Zero" probably really means "Getting To Six", but that's OK --- we're going to call it "Getting To Zero" anyway!
And if we get fees, who knows?!?
Have a great holiday weekend!
Thursday, April 1, 2010
KY and OK - Sorry About That!
Illinois - 97.49%
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.70%
Alabama - 92.02%
Kentucky - 89.79%
Oklahoma - 89.68%
Since I started including KY and OK in the blog to see which one would cross 90% first, the race has gone backwards! My apologies to both of you! In fact, there are actually four states in the running - ND at 89.59% and NY at 89.24% are also getting close. Frankly, I'd like to see all of you get to 90% soon. We can use all the states we can get at that level.
Interestingly, Maine hasn't budged in the last week. I don't know if that's a data upload problem or the fact that IRP season is over. They were going like a house afire for a couple weeks.
Finally, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Z-Day ("Getting-To-Zero Day) is going to occur on/about June 17th. It's certainly an inexact science, but I'm pretty comfortable with the pace that we're on. That could all change, of course, if we get 2010 fees, in which case I'd be happy to ASSUME we were going to make it to zero and move on to 2010 registration!
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.70%
Alabama - 92.02%
Kentucky - 89.79%
Oklahoma - 89.68%
Since I started including KY and OK in the blog to see which one would cross 90% first, the race has gone backwards! My apologies to both of you! In fact, there are actually four states in the running - ND at 89.59% and NY at 89.24% are also getting close. Frankly, I'd like to see all of you get to 90% soon. We can use all the states we can get at that level.
Interestingly, Maine hasn't budged in the last week. I don't know if that's a data upload problem or the fact that IRP season is over. They were going like a house afire for a couple weeks.
Finally, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Z-Day ("Getting-To-Zero Day) is going to occur on/about June 17th. It's certainly an inexact science, but I'm pretty comfortable with the pace that we're on. That could all change, of course, if we get 2010 fees, in which case I'd be happy to ASSUME we were going to make it to zero and move on to 2010 registration!
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