North Dakota - Welcome to the 90% Club!!

Illinois - 98.18%
Maine - 96.23%
Alabama - 93.52%
Indiana - 92.70%
North Dakota - 90.04%

It's been a pretty wild couple of days around here as we prepare for the 2010 UCR registration campaign, but I felt the need to post a couple of observations pertaining to 2009 and 2010 registration anyway.

First, North Dakota hit 90% for 2009! Way to go, Frank and Company! I still intend to try and catch you, however, on the 2009 unregistered carriers, though. Today, it's North Dakota 350 and Illinois 397. No pressure!

Second, I love the energy that Alabama is still putting into 2009 registration. Their registration percentage climbs every day. By my calculation, they've still got to reduce their unregistered list by at least another 225-250 to catch Maine, but I think it's possible --- assuming Maine doesn't have another 2009 surge. Interesting race - too close to call.

And speaking of Maine, they are out of the gate early on 2010 registration. Nobody's going to have to worry about them on May 28th! Nice work, folks.

My final observation pertains to the 397 carriers I have left on my Unregistered List. Assuming they register at the levels in MCMIS, they represent $21K in revenue - and we all know that's a stretch. The "business guy" inside me is screaming, "Forget it!" ... but the "get to zero" side of me is saying, "Let's get them all!" 335 of them are Bracket 1 carriers and most of those 335 are located in the boonies. And yet, I want them all in the fold. I don't know ... I'll keep you posted.

Have a great weekend!

We Have 2010 Fees!!

Illinois - 98.06%
Maine - 96.29%
Alabama - 93.28%
Indiana - 92.70%

As I've indicated in previous posts, the arrival of 2010 fees - which is a WONDERFUL development - may necessitate closing out the UCR5000 Project blog. We just don't have the resources to chase down the last 400 unregistered carriers and, at the same time, carry out a full-fledged registration campaign - although those same carriers do, in fact, have to register for 2010 as well. I need to do a little more thinking about it.

Meanwhile, I don't plan to stop blogging. I need to do some more thinking about that, too. The UCR5000 project was intended as a kind of "journal" to document our pursuit of "Getting to Zero". As far as I'm concerned, anybody who doubts that we can't close out the last 400 carriers hasn't been paying attention. We're still right on schedule for mid-to-late June.

The next blog could be used to document the 2010 UCR campaign - or some other aspect of working with FMCSA.

If you have thoughts about it, please let me know. The blogging experience has been great! I'm now ready to direct my mediocre writing talents to "the next big thing" - whatever that turns out to be.

What A Difference A Month Makes!

Illinois - 98.00%
Maine - 96.26%
Alabama - 93.12%
Indiana - 92.70%

One month ago today, we only led Maine by .92% and Indiana actually led Alabama by .52%. In fact, Maine had a higher percentage a month ago (96.34%) than they have today! It's those darned "sideways adds"!

Today, I was having lunch with the guy who heads up the IL IRP program. Their agency just finished their IRP registration season, of course, and he said that they had registered 14,000 fleets. But we've done over 21,000 registrations! I THINK that means that if the IRP folks were also in charge of doing the UCR program, they would have done at least 7,000+ fewer registrations because they would have only registered the people who came in to do IRP. I hope somebody will let me know if I'm wrong about that and, if so, exactly how I'm wrong. I'm inclined to believe it's one more way that states are leaving money on the table.

Have a great weekend!

Beep, beep ... Alabama Zips Into 3rd!

Illinois - 98.00%
Maine - 96.32%
Alabama - 93.05%
Indiana - 92.71%

Man, that was impressive! Alabama's percentage jumped .22% in one day, catapulting them right past Indiana into 3rd place. Good job, Alabama!

Incredible as it may seem, we are still contacting carriers every day who are not familiar with UCR. Most of them are private, so the commercial vehicle thing is secondary to their real business, but I'm still surprised. I just talked to two guys who received tickets from our cops ---- they were not on our UCR Unregistered List and I honestly believe they have never heard of UCR.

We hit 98% right on the head on the COB 4/21. This morning's magic number was 436, with ND at 360. Look out, Frank! We had a decent day with 9 registrations and several deactivations, so, with any luck, we'll bump it up a little tomorrow morning.

Alabama Coming Up On the Outside!!!

Illinois - 97.88%
Maine - 96.32%
Indiana - 92.74%
Alabama - 92.72%

In case you haven't been paying attention, Alabama is about to pass Indiana for the #3 registration percentage spot. Alabama has never really let up. Hats off to them! Of course, now that I've pointed it out, I'll probably jinx them forever!

Meanwhile, Maine was at 96.31% one month ago today. Like the old adage says, "If you're not moving forward, you're slipping behind." Or something like that.

Tomorrow is the 21st and you know what that means - I anticipated that we would be at 98% by the COB tomorrow. Yikes!

We have a new "secret weapon" in the UCR registration arena. I'll write about it when I have a little more experience with it.

Later!

Z-Day --- An Update

Illinois - 97.86%
Maine - 96.32%
Indiana - 92.74%
Alabama - 92.67%

Approximately three weeks ago, I declared Z-Day to be June 17th ... with the caveat that "getting to zero" was an inexact science at best. I mentioned at the time that the wild card is going to be "sideways adds". Since then, we have gotten an inordinate number of sideways adds, which has complicated things just a bit. I'm going to stick with the 17th for now, assuming that the sideways adds are going to "revert to the mean". Otherwise, we may need to adjust the date a little. Not a lot, just a little!

How Low Can You Go?

Illinois - 97.87%
Maine - 96.32%
Indiana - 92.73%
Alabama - 92.65%

OK - call me competitive. I don't care.

I was noticing the other day that there are three participating states with fewer unregistered carriers than IL. Granted, it doesn't really matter. Our goal is to get to zero - not pass those three states. But it makes it more fun! It's like playing that game at the carnival where you roll the golf ball to make the horses move in the horse race. In this case, the goal is just to finish - but what's the harm in making it more like a carnival game!

Those three states, by the way, are:

Maine - 113
Alaska - 212
North Dakota - 363

Illinois is at 470.

On the state percentage side (see above) Alabama is creeping up on Indiana and I expect them to pass Indiana in the next week or two. I'm not the only person in this program that's competitive! My old friend Scott is not far behind me ... but he is behind me! Just kidding, Scott!

Have great rest of the weekend!

UCR, FMCSA Data and Due Diligence

Illinois - 97.75%
Maine - 96.38%
Indiana - 92.71%
Alabama - 92.57%

I know that UCR was never intended to fix FMCSA data. In fact, I remember several discussions where we specifically said the fixing the data was NOT a goal. But I have to tell that I have a hard time deactivating a carrier without exercising a fair amount of due diligence.

We are working on a new due diligence protocol that has to be at least as good as the Feds' protocol --- and maybe better. And, we are running into situations that are a little strange.

Here's an example:

The other day I had a carrier that, for all practical purposes, looked inactive. Phone disconnected, address no good, corporation not in good standing, etc. But .... he showed an active federal authority. What? He's paying for insurance ... and not even paying the phone bill?

So, I called up the insurance company, asked if the filing was still valid (because they're good until cancelled!), informed the underwriter that they were still on the risk for the guy, and, voila, the filing got cancelled and the authority will be going away shortly.

NOW, I can deactivate the number in good conscience!

UCR and FMCSA Data

Illinois - 97.72%
Maine - 96.48%
Indiana - 92.70%
Alabama - 92.44%

The other day, I was having lunch with our State FMCSA Director.

We were at a buffet and busy stuffing our faces, but, as I recall, he said something to the effect of, "Do you know we had 4,500 New Entrants last year? That's head-and-shoulders above every other mid-western state --- and right up there with CA and TX."

For better or for worse, I felt that we had a lot to do with that "achievement" because of UCR. In fact, I think it's the best part of UCR.

We haven't been just out collecting money. We have been out "scaring up" carriers who needed to register for UCR because they needed to have USDOT numbers all along ... and many of them didn't even have USDOT numbers yet. I ask again --- why didn't they have them? Most of them weren't new carriers. It's not a rhetorical question.

In the process, we have also been finding Federal data records that need to be deactivated or corrected. In theory, this type of effort should be coming out of programs like MCSAP, but isn't.

I think UCR is a great example of a State-Fed partnership. And, quite honestly, I bristle a little when I hear people say that they program is just about "collecting money". That's not the way we view the program here.

Just ask our FMCSA Director!

Sideways Drops ... The Rest Of The Story

Illinois - 97.69%
Maine - 96.51%
Indiana - 92.74%
Alabama - 92.24%

First, let me point out that I think I've been jinxing all of the 89%+ states - they have just stagnated - so I'm removing them from the blog for now. They were doing better before I started including them, which may have been a function of 2010 IRP renewal season.

Now, let's get down to the exciting business of "sideways drops".

First, we need to review how a carrier gets on the Unregistered List.

Obviously, they have to NOT be registered for 2009 yet.

In addition to that, they also have to be designated (according to MCMIS) as an Active, Interstate Carrier.

Finally, they have to had at least one of the following:

an MCS-150 update in the past 12 months
an inspection within the past 15 months
an accident within the past 15 months
a UCR registration for some year within the past 12 months

If they qualified yesterday but no longer qualify today, they get dropped from the list - just like that!

As luck would have it, I had two sideways drops this morning. I had two carriers on my UL who qualified by way of their "MCS-150 Update" dated 4/9/09. Since they didn't have any of the other three criteria ... and since today marks "one year and one day" since their MCS-150 update, they miraculously dropped off our Unregistered List. No muss, no fuss ... Rest assured that we had tried to register these guys numerous times over the past year, but they just never responded. Frankly, I think they both might be out of business, but that is not directly germane to this discussion.

So there you have it! Everything you always wanted to know about "Sideways Drops"! They're like termites - you can have them and never know it unless you look really close and you know what you're looking for.

Have a great weekend!

"Sideways Drops" And Tsunamis - Which Is Easier To Predict?

Illinois - 97.65%
Maine - 96.54%
Indiana - 92.76%
Alabama - 92.14%
Kentucky - 89.71%
Oklahoma - 89.62%

I've been doing a little more thinking about the criteria for "Sideways Drops" ... and wondering if I couldn't come up with a better way for predicting these drops. So far, my short answer is "No".

Just to review, here's my un-scientific "back of the envelope" definition for the term "sideways drops":

Carriers who are on the Unregistered List one day and fall off the Unregistered List the next day without anybody doing anything proactive to get them off the list.

Here are two situations that DO NOT qualify as "Sideways Drops":

We change a "carrier" to a "registrant".

We deactivate a USDOT number.

In both of these situations the carriers come off the UL, but we did something proactive to get them off of the list.

Confused??? I'll try to clarify all of this in my next post.

Besieged By "Sideways Adds"!

Illinois - 97.60%
Maine - 96.51%
Indiana - 92.77%
Alabama - 92.12%
Kentucky - 89.74%
Oklahoma - 89.62%

Yesterday, it was 14. Today, it was 10. 24 sideways adds in two days! From the looks of things, about half were due to MCS-150 updates and half were due to inspections being filed by somebody. The inspections aren't posted anywhere I can look at them yet, so I don't know who submitted them. It's all good, however. More folks to register!

While I'm thinking about "sideways" stuff, it has occurred to me that I never write about "sideways drops" - the opposite of "sideways adds". These are carriers that "drop off" the list because they pass the "no UCR, no MCS-150 update, no crashes and no inspections" threshhold from one day to the next. Quite honestly, we don't keep up quite as well with people who leave the list as we do with people who get added on, but these "drops" are a legitimate piece of Unregistered List business as well. Perhaps I'll write more about them in the next few posts.

An IRP-UCR Twist

Illinois - 97.60%
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.75%
Alabama - 92.06%
Kentucky - 89.77%
Oklahoma - 89.62%

As we narrow down our last 500 guys, we are taking a closer look at each carrier to better understand who's left on the list and why they're still on there.

In quite a few instances, we are seeing guys who say they are active interstate motor carriers but who don't register for IRP or IFTA.

After talking with our FMCSA Director, Steve Mattioli, we are kind of "stuck" in the position of having to continue to pursue these guys on the assumption that they MIGHT be operating only vehicles under 26,000 pounds. Doubtful ... but certainly possible.

The most problematic of these guys are the ones who don't get back to us and who are in out-of-the-way locations.

Never fear - we will find out the real scoop on each one! And the truth will set one of us free!

The truth will also write some of them tickets!

Getting To Zero - One More Thing

Illinois - 97.59%
Maine - 96.38%
Indiana - 92.74%
Alabama - 92.00%
Kentucky - 89.73%
Oklahoma - 89.62%

In yesterday's post, I forgot to talk about one more thing that may make "getting to zero" a little misleading - carriers who are "in process".

In addition to the "sideways adds", we are always going to have a few carriers on any given day who are "in process". In other words, there will always be a few registrations "in between" the carrier and us. Usually, this is in the mail or FedEx. They could also be planning to fax their registration in today or drop by in person. Or, they might be waiting for a permit agent to open so they can have the P/A do the registration.

When we get right down to the last few, I'm sure we'll find a couple more reasons why we can't get it right down to zero on a given day. Maybe, since we don't have direct access to MCMIS, we're going to be waiting to get status changes - from carrier to registrant or active to inactive or interstate to intrastate - in MCMIS.

At any rate, I'm thrilled that we can even contemplate these last few piddly issues. But who knows ... maybe the last 50 registrations will prove to be much tougher than I think they will. Only time will tell.

Z-Day (Getting To Zero Day) - What Does That Really Mean?

Illinois - 97.53%
Maine - 96.38%
Indiana - 92.71%
Alabama - 91.97%
Kentucky - 89.77%
Oklahoma - 89.65%

Now that I've declared on/about June 17th to be Z-Day, I've decided to give some thought as to what GTZ actually means in practical terms. Can we really get to zero on/about that day? Probably not.

Here's why:

On any given day, we are "blindsided" by a set of carrier data I have labelled "sideways adds". These are carriers who show up on today's unregistered list, but who weren't on the list yesterday. For those of you who may have forgotten, these additions can happen a couple of different ways.

First, a carrier may have gotten re-classified. In other words, they were classified as something other than an active, interstate carrier yesterday. Perhaps they were labelled as intrastate, inactive or a registrant.

Second, some state may have uploaded to MCMIS an inspection or a crash where there were none for a carrier yesterday. This creates carrier "activity", which moves the carrier into the hallowed inner ring of the UCR Universe.

On a typical day, we here in Illinois generate a "sideways add" list of about 6 carriers. Some days it's a dozen and some days it's two, but 6 is about the norm.

So .... even if we register the last ten carriers on today's list, we will probably get some new carriers via the "sideways add" process tomorrow morning. It's kind of like the half-life of uranium.

And so it goes ... "Getting to Zero" probably really means "Getting To Six", but that's OK --- we're going to call it "Getting To Zero" anyway!

And if we get fees, who knows?!?

Have a great holiday weekend!

KY and OK - Sorry About That!

Illinois - 97.49%
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.70%
Alabama - 92.02%
Kentucky - 89.79%
Oklahoma - 89.68%

Since I started including KY and OK in the blog to see which one would cross 90% first, the race has gone backwards! My apologies to both of you! In fact, there are actually four states in the running - ND at 89.59% and NY at 89.24% are also getting close. Frankly, I'd like to see all of you get to 90% soon. We can use all the states we can get at that level.

Interestingly, Maine hasn't budged in the last week. I don't know if that's a data upload problem or the fact that IRP season is over. They were going like a house afire for a couple weeks.

Finally, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Z-Day ("Getting-To-Zero Day) is going to occur on/about June 17th. It's certainly an inexact science, but I'm pretty comfortable with the pace that we're on. That could all change, of course, if we get 2010 fees, in which case I'd be happy to ASSUME we were going to make it to zero and move on to 2010 registration!

Show Me The Money! On the Road to 98%

Illinois - 97.44%
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.68%
Alabama - 91.99%
Kentucky - 89.83%
Oklahoma - 89.69%

As of this morning, we have 556 carriers left on our Unregistered List. If they all pay in accordance with the MCMIS numbers, we'll generate another $59,564. Not exactly the stuff of financial dreams, but ... very consistent with the "average of $80-100 per registration theory".

You may find this surprising, but I like to develop little spreadsheets that tell me different things about UCR stats. One of my favorites is a report I call the UCR Daily Activity report, where I monitor all of today's different UCR activities like registration, deactivations, buffer additions, carrier additions, etc. and attempt to decipher where our percentage is likely to wind up tomorrow morning. It's trickier than it sounds, because we don't know how many carriers the Feds are going to add overnight. Also, as you know, not every registered carrier comes off the Unregistered List.

I have an extra little section on that worksheet that contains the data about the other leading registration states and where we stand compared to them. Since we're almost half-way to 98%, I decided to calculate what the other states would have to do to get to 98%. It goes something like this:

We will have to take approximately 116 of carriers off our remaining 556 unregistered carriers (about 21%) to get to 98%.

Maine would have to take approximately 48 carriers off their remaining 110 unregistered carriers (about 44%) to get to 98%.

Indiana would have to take approximately 725 carriers off their remaining 993 unregistered carriers (about 73%) to get to 98%.

Alabama would have to take approximately 475 carriers off their remaining 636 unregistered carriers (about 75%) to get to 98%.

Hey, it ain't easy!

Which Comes First - We Get To Zero ... or 2010 Fees?

Illinois - 97.36%
Maine - 96.41%
Indiana - 92.58%
Alabama - 91.84%
Kentucky - 89.81%
Oklahoma - 89.71%

It's interesting that our "Getting to Zero" (GTZ) date projections appear to be on a crash course with the 90-day OMB deadline. As you know, I have mixed feelings about that. But since GTZ is still approximately 2.64 months away, it makes me wonder what in the world OMB is reviewing! Or, more likely, is the rule just sitting at the bottom of a pile on somebody's desk (which will necessitate a 90-day extension)? Who knows?

For what it's worth, here's my prognostication: I'm betting on GTZ to win, publication of the final 2010 fee rule to show - yes, show - and the Tea Party wildly embracing massive public debt to place.

J-u-s-s-s-s-s-t kidding!

Oklahoma Coming On Strong!

Illinois - 97.33%
Maine - 96.44%
Indiana - 92.43%
Alabama - 91.85%
Kentucky - 89.85%
Oklahoma - 89.72%

I've added Oklahoma to the stats because they are really making headway toward 90% registration and I'm interested to see if they get there before Kentucky. What difference does that make? Who knows? Maybe it's just the competitive side of me. Kentucky has been stuck in the same range for 2-3 weeks now. Maybe I'll send them an Unregistered List to help them get unstuck.

Speaking of Kentucky, there was a big accident on I-65 about 5:30 this morning south of Louisville. Apparently, a big rig crossed a median and hit a Mennonite church van head-on. 11 people are dead - most of them in the van and at least a couple of them infants. It's really tragic. I'm tempted to editorialize, but I think I'll just leave it alone. You probably know what I'd say anyway.

Have a great weekend!

UCR and FMCSA Out-Of-Service (OOS) Carriers

Illinois - 97.30%
Maine - 96.34%
Indiana - 92.36%
Alabama - 91.86%
Kentucky - 89.86%

Of the 586 carriers on today's Unregistered List, we have a handful of carriers who are classified by the FMCSA as "Out-Of-Service (OOS)". I have decided that it's not "reasonable" to expect us to register these carriers under UCR as they have been deemed unfit to operate by FMCSA and they will be detained and further penalized if they are caught operating.

FMCSA does not deactivate their USDOT numbers, however, so they will continue to show up on our Unregistered List.

We have decided, therefore, that we are going to "Buffer" these carriers (ask UCR-Link to "hide" them from our view) in order to get them off our radar. In the event that FMCSA allows these carriers back into service, we will "un-buffer" them.