Number Weirdness

Unregistered Carriers on 02/25/2009 - 838
Unregistered Carriers on 02/26/2010 - 832

Illinois - 96.16%
Maine - 94.91%
Indiana - 91.80%
Alabama - 90.78%
Kentucky - 89.74%

There's sort of a friendly competition going on among, at the very least, Alabama, Maine and Illinois. By "friendly competition", I mean that all of us are watching our percentages pretty closely, diligently working the UCR program, and thinking, "I think we could wind up on top of the registration percentage heap for 2009!". And, as I've said many times in this blog, "It's all good!" From a performance standpoint, all states should be engaged in whatever it takes (as long as it's legal) to raise that UCR registration percentage.

I mentioned yesterday that I think Maine is the odds-on favorite to wind up on top - and even "get to zero" - if they keep doing what they've been doing over the past couple of weeks. Why? Number Weirdness!

Maine has registered 2,906 carriers and currently has 156 carriers on their unregistered list for a registration percentage of 94.91%. If their unregistered list was reduced by just another 40 carriers, they would be tied for the lead with me. Meanwhile, Alabama has registered 7,208 carriers and currently has 732 carriers on their unregistered list for a registration percentage of 90.78% In order to get to the same spot, they will have to reduce their unregistered list by roughly another 450 carriers. That's a lot when you only have 732 to start with! Meanwhile, us folks in Illinois don't plan to be standing still, so whatever improvements we make in our percentage only raises the bar a little more.

One think I think we all agree on: the Unregistered List is invaluable! All of us have slightly different approaches, but since we have the list of carriers who haven't registered, we at least know who to go after.

It's all good!!

Maine is Rockin'!

Unregistered Carriers on 02/24/2009 - 843
Unregistered Carriers on 02/25/2010 - 838

Illinois - 96.13%
Maine - 94.87%
Indiana - 91.79%
Alabama - 90.68%
Kentucky - 89.75%

I'm not going to lie to you - I think if Maine keeps doing what they've been doing over the past couple of weeks, they stand a good chance of "getting to zero" before Illinois ... and I'm going to be rooting them on all the way!

They are doing two things that I think are crucial. First, they are actively working from an Unregistered Carrier List. They know which carriers should be registering but haven't yet registered. Second, they are "suspending commercial plates, commercial driving privileges and cab cards" - or at least threatening to suspend them - if carriers don't comply. That is a recipe for UCR success ... as long as it's legal in the state.

You go, Maine!

West Virginia, We Salute You!

Unregistered Carriers on 02/23/2009 - 849
Unregistered Carriers on 02/24/2010 - 843

Illinois - 96.10%
Maine - 94.42%
Indiana - 91.80%
Alabama - 90.58%
Kentucky - 89.76%

My good friend Scott Morris points out that West Virginia deserves some kudos for the work they have done in the last 30 days --- raising their registration percentage a full three percentage points! Way to go, folks! That's not easy to do at this stage of the registration cycle.

I'd also like to point out once again that Maine is coming on strong, raising their registration percentage a full percentage point in the last couple of weeks and knocking down the number of carriers on their unregistered list by a full 15%!

Git 'er done!

Come on, Kentucky!

Unregistered Carriers on 02/22/2009 - 868
Unregistered Carriers on 02/23/2010 - 849

Illinois - 96.07%
Maine - 94.13%
Indiana - 91.77%
Alabama - 90.52%
Kentucky - 89.75%

I love what's going on in several states! Yesterday, I mentioned all the good work going on in Alabama. Maine actually jumped by .40 since yesterday! I'm going to assume that is a result of either IRP registrations or accumulated data updates sent to the Fed. I have also included KY in the states listed above because they are so close to 90%. It's worth noting that the lowest state in the "top 10" - Nebraska - is at 86.23%. These are serious percentages, people! Hopefully, we can begin to dispel the notion that 90% registration is some sort of lofty dream for a state. In fact, I continue to believe that every state can hit 90% if they employ the right methods.

Meanwhile, I don't want to short-change states like New York that have not only registered 88.38% of their own carriers, but have also assumed the responsibility for registering many non-participating state carriers.

For what it's worth, cumulative registration now sits at 76.33%, which some industry reps once publicly acknowledged could represent a "good faith registration effort by the states". Remember that???

Back From Florida and Feeling (and Looking) Good!!!

Unregistered Carriers on 02/12/2009 - 921
Unregistered Carriers on 02/22/2010 - 868

Illinois - 95.98%
Maine - 93.73%
Indiana - 91.75%
Alabama - 90.41%

Right out of the chute, I want to do two things.

First, I want to make a point of saying what a fine job the folks at the Alabama PSC are doing on UCR. The have now surpassed KY and ND on the registration percentage list and joined the "90% Club". We now have 4 states over 90% and the aforementioned KY and ND knocking on the door at 89.74% and 89.37% respectively.

Second, I want to give you an update on a post I made 1/21/10 regarding getting from 95% registration to 96% registration. Specifically, I ended the post by saying:

My gut feeling: we need about 300 more registrations and our average number of new adds and deactivations to get to 96%. With any luck, we can do it in about a month.

Let's see how close I get.

Since we will most likely surpass 96% after today's activity (right on target!!) I'm going to go ahead and give you a summary of our numbers. As of Friday, we had registered 242 carriers since 1/22 (we also have an additional 21 registrations today) and reduced our unregistered list from 1078 to 868.

Why is any of this important? Because UCR success - at least as it's been regarded to date - begins with understanding where we are in relation to the task ahead of us.

In other words, who are we supposed to be registering --- and how are we doing at getting them registered?

MCMIS, UCR & More - Part 5

Unregistered Carriers on 02/10/2009 - 934
Unregistered Carriers on 02/10/2010 - 921

Illinois - 95.73%
Maine - 93.66%

Today, I'd like to talk about State Corroboration of FMCSA data. I'm not talking about FMCSA state offices - I'm talking about actual state agencies who interact with FMCSA data.

Let me give you a couple of examples:

1) A motor carrier incorporates in Illinois. The corporation subsequently acquires a USDOT number. Later, that corporation is dissolved - voluntarily or involuntarily. According to everything we here in Illinois know, that corporation is no longer a viable legal entity and is no longer able to conduct business under the auspices of the corporation. Period! What should happen to the MCMIS record?

2) A motor carrier operates commercial vehicles interstate under a federal authority. The motor carrier doesn't register for a given year under the state's IRP program. What should happen to the MCMIS record?

3) A motor carrier with an "Active USDOT number" can be proven - via cancellation of policies and insurance filings - to be without insurance. What should happen to the USDOT number?

In conjunction with "cleaning up the data", we need to initiate an extensive dialogue about expanding and coordinating the collective database of knowledge we have about motor carriers. "Cleaning up the data" shouldn't just be about making sure that FMCSA has the correct name and address for a carrier. Cleaning up the data should also be about making sure that we - the FMCSA and the states - share and coordinate all the information we have about a carrier and making sure that carriers should even be on the highway. This is easier said than done ... but well worth the effort.

I'll be on R&R next week. The next post will be on or about 2/23.

MCMIS, UCR & MORE - Part 4

Unregistered Carriers on 02/09/2009 - 941
Unregistered Carriers on 02/10/2010 - 934

Illinois - 95.67%
Maine - 93.50%

Sooner or later, the State UCR agencies and the FMCSA - and maybe a few more entities - need to have the following discussion:

What does FMCSA mean when they classify a motor carrier as "Active"?

Here, in a nutshell, is what I think they mean. I think they mean that when a MCMIS record is created, a carrier's status is set to "Active". From there, it takes an "Act of God" to make that carrier "Inactive". (Just kidding!)

Here's what we can pretty much say that it doesn't mean:

It doesn't mean that the carrier has had any "activity" lately. The FMCSA hasn't seen or heard from some of these carriers in years.

It doesn't mean that the carrier is "legal". An active carrier whose operation is listed as for-hire can have his authority revoked in L&I for years and still be "active".

It doesn't mean the carrier should be operating. The carrier can be classified as "Out-Of-Service" and still also be classified as "Active".

It doesn't mean the carrier is "safe". Plenty of unsafe carriers are classified as "active".

So, if "Active" doesn't mean any of those things, what does it mean? And how do we get it changed???

MCMIS, UCR & More - Part 3

Unregistered Carriers on 02/08/2009 - 953
Unregistered Carriers on 02/09/2010 - 941

Illinois - 95.64%
Maine - 93.43%

Let's review about those MCMIS carrier records that look like UCR Universe Carriers but which actually do not represent carriers in the "UCR Universe". There are thousands of them. Who are these carriers, exactly?

They are carriers which MCMIS shows as "Active, Interstate Carriers" - just as UCR Universe carriers are shown as "Active, Interstate Carriers - but, unlike UCR Universe Carriers, these records do not show any associated inspections, crashes, MCS-150 updates or previous-year UCR registrations in the past 12 months.

The assumption is that since these carrier records had no "activity" attached to them, they are less likely to actually still be in business.

The States have had some experience contacting these carriers, but the outcomes have been less than stellar. My own personal guess is that at least half of them - maybe more - are out of business, so there is very little incentive for UCR states to contact these carriers. No sense wasting time, paper, postage, phone calls, etc. when 1) they're not part of the UCR Universe and 2) the chances are good they are not there anyway.

These records are a major problem for FMCSA, but UCR is unlikely to fix this problem for the reasons I just described.

MCMIS, UCR & More - Part 2

Unregistered Carriers on 02/06/2009 - 950
Unregistered Carriers on 02/08/2010 - 953

Illinois - 95.58%
Maine - 93.43%

In the last post, I discussed the connection between MCMIS and UCR. I also explained the "UCR Universe" and how that came about.

Now, I want to make a very important point about the connection between UCR and MCMIS:

The performance of the states under UCR is being "judged" by the percentage of the carriers in the UCR Universe they register.

This means that the states are actually helping to clean up Fed MCMIS data for many of the carriers in the UCR Universe --- but not for the tens of thousands of carriers who are NOT in the UCR Universe.

Here's an example: according to MCMIS, Illinois has about 32,000 carriers that are flagged as "Active, Interstate Carriers". We have registered approximately 20,600 of these carriers and show a UCR Universe remainder of about 950 carriers. This leaves about 11,000 carriers that are "off our UCR radar", primarily because they have not had an inspection, a crash or an MCS-150 update in the past 12 months. To my knowledge, nobody is cleaning up those records.

In the next post, we'll talk some more about the significance of these carrier records.

MCMIS, UCR and More! - Part 1

Unregistered Carriers on 02/04/2009 - 971
Unregistered Carriers on 02/06/2010 - 950

Illinois - 95.60%
Maine - 93.40%

Those of you who are new to this blog have missed some of the earlier posts which described the relationship between the Unified Carrier Registration (UCR) and the FMCSA's Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS). We can all stand a review once in a while, so I'm going to begin a multi-part series that describes, from my own point of view, the relationship between MCMIS and UCR ... and then offer a few observations about the future of that relationship --- at no extra cost!

Let's start by explaining how MCMIS got connected with UCR.

The UCR program registers interstate motor carriers, brokers and freight forwarders. For the sake of simplicity, I will heretofore refer to this entire group as "carriers".

When the UCR Board was trying to figure out about how many carriers were currently in operation (in order to determine first-year fees), the Board quickly reached concensus that the most comprehensive source of entities fitting the federal definition of "interstate commercial motor carrier" was MCMIS. IRP and IFTA were considered, but since their definition of carrier starts at 26,000 pounds - and they don't include brokers or freight forwarders - and their definition of "interstate" is considerably different - they were not considered comprehensive enough by the Board. After all, the more potential carriers we could identify, the lower the fees could be set.

The Board's next task was to use MCMIS to figure out 1) who was likely to actually register under UCR and 2) about how many vehicles those carriers would register.

After much deliberation by the Board's Revenue and Fees Committee, the Board adopted the recommendation that a "UCR Universe" Carrier would be a carrier designated in MCMIS as an "Active, Interstate Carrier" with some level of activity - an inspection, a crash, or an MCS-150 update - within the past 12 months.

This set of criteria produced a "Universe" of approximately 350,000 MCMIS records which the States would actively solicit for UCR registration.

This set of criteria also "left behind" literally tens of thousands of MCMIS records that were designated as "Active, Interstate Carriers" that did not have the aforementioned activity in the last 12 months. We'll talk a lot more about this group in the next few days.

Have a great weekend!

Look Out Louisiana & Kansas

Unregistered Carriers on 02/01/2009 - 999
Unregistered Carriers on 02/04/2010 - 971

Illinois - 95.50%
Maine - 93.40%

With 971 unregistered carriers, we are within "shouting distance" of two states:

USLA 964
USKS 950

Fair warning: we're coming after you! Just to keep things interesting!

Meanshile, we're halfway to 96% --- a little bit ahead of schedule.

One other thing ... California passed the 20,000 registration mark today. I don't care who you are, that's a lot of registrations in a state.

Less Than 1,000 To Go! Tentative Target Date - May 15th!

Unregistered Carriers on 01/30/2009 - 1006
Unregistered Carriers on 02/01/2010 - 999

Illinois - 95.37%
Maine - 93.40%

I don't know why, by moving to "under 1,000" unregistered MCMIS carrier records seems like a cool thing to me. The bad news is that there are still "just under 1,000" unregistered MCMIS records out there.

On March 17th, 2009, when I started the "Getting to Zero" effort, we had 5,123 unregistered carriers left to go, so we have, indeed, come a long way .... and we've learned a lot!

On January 1, we had 1,301 unregistered carriers, so I would consider removing a net of 300 records per month to be entirely realistic. Simple math using that pace "gets us to zero" around May 15th. Do I think it will go down that way? Maybe, maybe not.

My hope is that we will get 2010 fees and have to direct our attention first and foremost to 2010 registration. We've been collecting "other people's money" for about a year now and it's time to get some revenue in the door that we can keep. In that case, we will continue to collect 2009 revenues, but we will probably be less aggressive about deactivating unregistered carriers.

For now, it's business as usual ...